A commentary on the modelling of the causal linkages among nutrient loading, harmful algal blooms, and hypoxia patterns in Lake Erie

In this study, our primary aim is to evaluate the capacity of past and current modelling efforts to depict the causal relationships between major water quality indicators (e.g., chlorophyll a, harmful algal blooms, dissolved oxygen) and nutrient loading in Lake Erie. We first conduct a review of nearly all the modelling projects documented in the pertinent literature, and then

Towards the development of integrated modelling systems in aquatic biogeochemistry: a Bayesian approach

Modelling constructs are designed to shed light on different facets of biogeochemical cycles, but their application involves substantial uncertainty contributed by model structure, parameters, and other inputs. The Bayesian paradigm is uniquely suitable for developing integrated environmental modelling systems, overcoming the conceptual or scale misalignment

Can simple phosphorus mass balance models guide management decisions? A case study in the Bay of Quinte, Ontario, Canada

We test the capacity of an existing simple mass-balance total phosphorus (TP) model to evaluate nutrient loading scenarios in the Bay of Quinte, Ontario, Canada. Our study examines whether model parameters and loading inputs are well characterized and relevant to the current conditions in the Bay of Quinte and its drainage areas. We also identify critical data

Improving the representation of internal nutrient recycling with phosphorus mass balance models: A case study in the Bay of Quinte

We evaluate the relative importance of the causal connection between exogenous total phosphorus (TP) loading and internal nutrient recycling with the water quality conditions in the Bay of Quinte, Ontario, Canada. First, we examine the temporal trends of all the major point and non-point loading sources over the last four decades. We then enhance the mechanistic foundation

Predicting the Frequency of Water Quality Standard Violations Using Bayesian Calibration of Eutrophication Models

The water quality standard setting process usually relies on mathematical models with strong mechanistic basis, as this provides assurance that the model will more realistically project the effects of alternative management schemes. From an operational standpoint, the interpretation of model results should be coupled with rigorous error analysis and explicit consideration

Application of a eutrophication model for assessing water quality in Lake Winnipeg. Journal of Great Lakes Research

A eutrophication model using Water Analysis Simulation Program (WASP) has been applied to Lake Winnipeg during the period from 2002 to 2007. The model includes two nutrient cycles (N and P) and three functional phytoplankton groups (non-cyanobacteria, N-fixing cyanobacteria and non-N-fixing cyanobacteria). The model also considers distinct features

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